rediffGURU Ulhas Joshi answers readers' mutual fund queries
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Nestle and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. Infosys, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever and Titan were the major laggards.
A combination of strong earnings and economic growth, and hopes of the Federal Reserve ending the rate-hike cycle have pushed gross buying of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (IPO) to a new high. In 2023, FPIs have been gross buyers of shares worth Rs 25.5 trillion, the highest ever in a calendar year. FPIs also sold shares worth Rs 23.9 trillion. On a net basis, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.6 trillion, the highest since 2020.
This year, the combined net profit of 24 index companies, which have declared their June-20 numbers, has declined by 37 per cent year on year, while their revenues, including other income, is down by 21 per cent YoY so far.
A key reason for the rise in crypto currencies in 2023 is the possibility of the world's first Bitcoin ETF over the next few months.
From the Sensex pack, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Sun Pharma, Nestle, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and ITC were the major laggards. Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Titan and ICICI Bank were among the major gainers.
HCL Technologies was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 5.58 per cent, followed by Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC and Wipro. In contrast, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Maruti and ITC were among the laggards.
Equity benchmark index Sensex buckled under selling pressure for the second straight session to close below the 65k mark on Friday, as investors offloaded IT, teck and metal stocks amid a bearish global trend. Besides, fresh foreign fund outflows also hit investor sentiments, traders said. In a volatile trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 202.36 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 64,948.66.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
After a sharp rally in the equities market this year, investors could be better off rotating some funds towards the debt market. Experts believe several tailwinds could spur bond market returns over the next 12-18 months. These include India's robust macroeconomics, declining inflation, and the imminent passive flows of close to Rs 2.5 trillion on account of domestic sovereign bonds getting included in the JP Morgan global indices.
Mutual funds (MFs) turned net sellers of equities in April amid a run up in stock prices on sustained inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPI). The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty50, logged their biggest monthly advance since November last year, gaining 3.6 per cent and 4.1 per cent last month. Data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows that MFs sold equities worth over Rs 5,100 crore in April, the highest since February 2021.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Nestle were the major laggards. Maruti, Power Grid, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, NTPC, HDFC Bank, ITC and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
The mutual fund (MF) industry added a record Rs 10 trillion to its total assets under management (AUM) in 2023, taking the cumulative tally past the Rs 50 trillion mark for the first time, in December. This 20 per cent growth in AUM last year was fuelled by a robust rally in the equity markets and a record Rs 1.62 trillion net inflows into active equity schemes. In another first, the AUM linked to systematic investment plans, too, hit Rs 10 trillion by the end of 2023.
Sensex rose 5.8% this year, against a 3.2% rise in Nifty; Axis Bank inclusion may blunt Sensex edge
The markets may be entering a consolidation phase and are expected to trade sideways for now after a good run in the last few weeks, suggest analysts. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can book profits at the current levels and enter the market again on a decline from a medium-to-long term perspective. Thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24), the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 5 per cent to nearly 62,000 levels.
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
Sectorally, bankex suffered the most by dropping 2.62 per cent, followed by finance 2.44 per cent and realty 1.63 per cent. On the other hand, telecom was among the top sectoral gainers, rising 4.60 per cent. IT index rose 2.62 per cent.
The mutual fund industry's assets under management (AUM) have likely breached the Rs 50 trillion mark following a rally in domestic equities this month. The industry's average AUM stood at almost Rs 48 trillion at the end of October. In November, the Nifty50 index has gained about 4 per cent so far, while smallcap and midcap indices have rallied close to 8 per cent.
In the US, the ratio of the CEO to average worker pay ratio was 373:1 in 2014.
'Sell part of your portfolio where you're making good money, especially in small caps and mid caps.' 'The money which you take home is yours. The money which is there on paper is not yours.
rediffGURU Dev Ashish answers your personal finance and mutual fund queries.
At a time when the market is betting on a 'higher for longer' global interest rate view, Accenture's (ACN) weak revenue forecast is a negative read-through for the Indian IT firms, according to analysts. The Dublin-based company sees its revenue growth at 2-5 per cent in constant currency (cc) for the financial year 2024 (FY24), below the pre-Covid levels of 5-8 per cent for FY17-20. The weak projection, thus, signals that slower demand is likely to persist this year, and any recovery is unlikely in the near-to-medium term, experts note.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.36 per cent, followed by Vedanta, Bajaj Finance, TCS, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, ONGC, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank, HDFC, M&M and ITC.
Ulhas Joshi, Head -- Sales, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
A logjam on the GST front could turn things upside down and turmoil in Gujarat might also have an adverse impact
JP Morgan has reiterated its negative stance on Indian information technology (IT) services and downgraded the sector to underweight (neutral earlier post Q4-FY23 numbers), as it believes the overall demand environment for the sector still remains weak. The research firm expects most companies in the sector to disappoint while announcing their first quarter numbers for the current fiscal (Q1-FY24). Among stocks, it has placed Infosys, TCS, MphasiS in its 'negative catalyst watch'.
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated debt ceiling negotiations. The development caused a flutter across equity markets, with most leading frontline global equity indices trading weak. Back home, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 lost over 1 per cent each in intra-day deals to hit a low of 65,751.53 and 19,517.55 levels, respectively.
Indian companies typically have higher return on equity.
Sentiment in the market will also be guided by other major market movers like trend in the rupee, Brent crude and foreign capital flows.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
'Business families like the Godrej group are increasingly realising that an amicable settlement is better.' 'Else, the wealth of all shareholders gets destroyed.'
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
The restraint on part of investors was chiefly because of RBI's minutes of its December policy meeting, which showed that some members were concerned about rising oil prices, its inflationary impact and possibility of fiscal slippage.
Economic growth, which we are taking for granted, slows for a completely different set of local or global factors and the Modi premium vanishes, observes Debashis Basu.
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 5.78 per cent; followed by Yes Bank, NTPC, L&T, Axis Bank, SBI, M&M, HDFC twins, Vedanta, HUL, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, HCL, TCS and ITC, gaining up to 3.79 per cent.
The combined weight of IT companies in the benchmark Nifty 50 index is now at a five-year high of 15 per cent as these companies continue to outperform the broader market.
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